That poll showed the liberal party with 44 percent of support compared to 38 percent backing the conservative party. Survey results from The Economist/YouGov from July 23 to 26 had Democrats 6-points ahead of Republicans. The survey included 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent. Notably, the same poll carried out in mid-June showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 40 percent-meaning Democrats have gained 4 points. That survey had Democrats backed by 44 percent of registered voters compared to 40 percent who supported Republicans. It included 2,500 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent.Īnother recent poll conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University from July 22 to 25 showed Democrats 4-points ahead. That survey had the GOP at 46 percent and Democrats at only 41 percent. The current Real Clear Politics average of recent national generic congressional ballot surveys shows Republicans with less than a 1-point advantage.Ī poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 24 to 28 shows Republicans with a 5-point advantage, however. Recent generic congressional polling data is mixed, with some suggesting Democrats are favored by more voters, while many others show the GOP ahead. "The Senate race is close, and in a few key races, Republicans have selected weak candidates, hurting their chances of taking the chamber in November," the analysis says. The site's current prediction gives Democrats a 56 in 100 chance of winning the majority in the Senate, while Republicans have just a 44 in 100 chance. FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently assesses that the party is "slightly favored" to maintain control of the upper chamber of Congress. Which Party Will Win the Senate?ĭemocrats appear to have a better chance of keeping control of the Senate, and possibly even expanding their majority. "Even if Democrats were to win all the races currently designated as toss-ups, plus hold on to all the seats they're favored to win, they would still wind up short of the number they need for a majority," FiveThirtyEight's analysis says. The forecast gives the GOP an 83 in 100 chance of winning the majority, compared to 17 in 100 for Democrats. News and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight's forecast shows Republicans are strongly favored to win back control of the House as well. Meanwhile, Democrats are predicted to lose those 16 seats, bring their total down to just 205. The news channel's tracker currently shows that Republicans will gain an estimated 16 House seats, bringing their total to 230. On Sunday, CBS News released its 2022 Battleground Tracker, showing the GOP likely to pick up a significant number of House seats in the upcoming election. MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images Which Party Will Win the House? Above, the U.S Capitol building is seen in Washington, D.C. Republicans appear to have the advantage to take back the House, and possibly the Senate, ahead of the 2022 midterm election, according to analyst predictions and polling. As President Joe Biden remains deeply unpopular, many see this as an indicator that Democrats will perform poorly as well. Democrats currently control both chambers of Congress with the slimmest of margins-meaning even a handful of losses will be enough to flip control of the legislative branch of government.Īnalysts have predicted for months-citing polling data and recent historical precedent-that Democrats are likely to lose control of the House and possibly the Senate when voters go to the polls on November 8. They then managed to regain control of the Senate in the 2020 election and the January 2021 Georgia runoff, although the liberal party also lost a substantial number of seats in the House. With 100 days to the midterm elections, Republicans still look well-positioned to retake control of the House and possibly the Senate-although some recent polls also suggest Democrats may be able to hold onto their narrow majorities.ĭemocrats wrestled back control of the House in the 2018 midterm election under former President Donald Trump.
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